Retail Holiday Season Recap: Solid Growth, Few Surprises
Summary
Major retailers like Lululemon, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Birkenstock released early holiday results, showing a season of solid but largely expected growth. While American Eagle and Five Below raised guidance on strong performance, others met expectations or faced challenges, reflecting a consumer spending environment where higher prices may limit volume growth.
Key Points
- Mixed Guidance Updates: Lululemon and Savers Value Village reaffirmed prior outlooks. Abercrombie & Fitch cut the high end of its sales and profit guidance despite “record” sales, causing its stock to drop over 18%.
- Strong Performers: American Eagle (comps up high single digits) and Five Below (comps up 14.5%) significantly raised their Q4 forecasts after better-than-expected results.
- Growth Amid Discounts: Lululemon noted heavy discounting drove early holiday demand, impacting margins. It expects Q4 results at the high end of its prior range.
- Analyst Expectations Met: The overall results align with the view that the 2024 holiday season would show decent sales growth, but with consumer spending gains not being massive or widespread.
- Price vs. Volume: Industry forecasts suggest retail sales grew healthily (3.7%-4.2%), but analysts note that higher prices likely mean the volume of goods sold was largely flat.
零售业假日季回顾：稳健增长，惊喜不多
摘要
Lululemon、Abercrombie & Fitch和Birkenstock等主要零售商公布了早期假日季业绩，显示这是一个稳健但基本符合预期的销售季。尽管American Eagle和Five Below因表现强劲而上调了业绩指引，但其他公司则只是达到预期或面临挑战，这反映出在消费者支出环境中，更高的价格可能限制了销量增长。
关键点
- 业绩指引调整不一： Lululemon和Savers Value Village重申了先前展望。Abercrombie & Fitch尽管销售额创”纪录”，仍下调了其销售和利润指引的高端预期，导致其股价下跌超过18%。
- 表现强劲的零售商： American Eagle（可比销售额高个位数增长）和Five Below（可比销售额增长14.5%）在业绩超预期后，大幅上调了第四季度预测。
- 折扣推动增长： Lululemon指出大幅折扣推动了早期假日需求，影响了利润率。该公司预计第四季度业绩将处于先前指引范围的高端。
- 符合分析师预期： 总体业绩符合市场观点，即2024年假日季销售额将呈现可观增长，但消费者支出的增长并非巨大或普遍。
- 价格与销量： 行业预测显示零售额增长健康（3.7%-4.2%），但分析师指出，更高的价格可能意味着售出的商品数量基本持平。
Original Article Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/retails-early-holiday-2025-results-show-modest-growth.html