News Brief: Melbourne’s Housing Market Divergence
Summary
Melbourne has become a national outlier as its dwelling price growth (15.5% over 5 years) lags far behind other major capitals like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth (~80-90%). This subdued growth is linked to an investor exodus, driven by state tax changes and regulatory costs, but has benefited renters with lower rent increases and created opportunities for first-home buyers.
Key Points
- Affordability Standout: Melbourne is now one of Australia’s most affordable capital cities, with a median house value (~$980,000) about $600,000 lower than Sydney’s.
- Investor Exodus: Increased land taxes and regulatory changes have prompted landlords to sell. Victoria lost an estimated 16,500 rental properties in one year post-tax changes.
- First-Home Buyer Boost: As investors left, first-home buyer activity rose, making up ~27% of Victorian demand in September 2025.
- Rent Relief: Melbourne’s rent increases (2.5% in 2025) were below the national average (5.2%), providing relative relief for tenants.
- Market Outlook: Analysts expect a softer 2026 for Melbourne’s housing market, influenced by weak investor demand, past high housing supply, and potential interest rate holds or rises.
- Equity Concerns: Despite lower price-to-income ratios, affordability pressures persist in traditionally cheaper suburbs, impacting quality of life and commute times for lower-income households.
新闻简报：墨尔本住房市场的分化
总结
墨尔本已成为全国范围内的特例，其住宅价格增长（五年内增长15.5%）远远落后于布里斯班、阿德莱德和珀斯等其他主要首府城市（约80-90%）。这种增长疲软与投资者的撤离有关，原因是州税收变化和监管成本上升，但这使得租金增长较低，惠及了租户，并为首次购房者创造了机会。
关键点
- 可负担性突出：墨尔本现在是澳大利亚最可负担的首府城市之一，房屋中位价（约98万澳元）比悉尼低约60万澳元。
- 投资者撤离：土地税增加和监管变化促使房东出售房产。税收变化生效后一年内，维多利亚州估计减少了16,500套出租物业。
- 首次购房者增加：随着投资者离开，首次购房者活动增加，在2025年9月占维州需求的约27%。
- 租金压力缓解：墨尔本租金涨幅（2025年为2.5%）低于全国平均水平（5.2%），为租户提供了相对缓解。
- 市场展望：分析师预计墨尔本住房市场在2026年将继续疲软，影响因素包括投资者需求疲软、过去的高住房供应量以及利率可能维持不变或上升。
- 公平性担忧：尽管房价收入比较低，但在传统上更便宜的郊区，可负担性压力依然存在，影响了低收入家庭的生活质量和通勤时间。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-19/melbourne-house-prices-affordable-capital-city/106210992