Economic Briefing: Post-Election Inflation Challenges
Summary
Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ post-election budget update highlights that inflation remains the dominant economic challenge, constraining ambitious reform plans and dictating a restrained fiscal approach.
Key Points
- Inflation Forecasts Revised Up: Treasury now expects inflation of 3.75% in 2023-24 (up from 3%) and 2.75% in 2024-25 (up from 2.5%).
- Restrained Budget Stance: The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) offered minimal new spending, emphasizing “responsible” and “restrained” measures to avoid fueling inflation.
- Political Success, Policy Constraint: While Labor’s cost-of-living strategy helped win the election, inflation has tied the government’s hands, preventing the “bold reform” Chalmers initially signaled.
- Structural Budget Challenges Persist: Fast-growing spending on the NDIS, aged care, and childcare outpaces revenue, creating a long-term structural deficit. Future tax cuts will complicate returning to surplus.
- The “Hard Conversations” Deferred: High inflation and cost-of-living pressures make major reforms (tax, childcare, spending restraint) politically risky, delaying the treasurer’s agenda for transformative economic change.
经济简报：大选后的通胀挑战
摘要
财长吉姆·查默斯的大选后预算更新表明，通胀仍是主导性的经济挑战，限制了他的雄心改革计划，并迫使政府采取紧缩的财政立场。
关键要点
- 通胀预测上调：财政部目前预计2023-24财年通胀率为3.75%（原为3%），2024-25财年为2.75%（原为2.5%）。
- 预算立场审慎：年中经济和财政展望（MYEFO）几乎没有提出新的支出，强调”负责任”和”审慎”的措施，以避免加剧通胀。
- 政治成功，政策受限：尽管工党生活成本策略帮助赢得了大选，但通胀束缚了政府手脚，使查默斯最初暗示的”大胆改革”无法推进。
- 结构性预算挑战持续：国家残疾保险计划（NDIS）、老年护理和儿童保育的支出快速增长超过收入，造成长期结构性赤字。未来的减税政策将使恢复盈余更加复杂。
- “艰难对话”被推迟：高通胀和生活成本压力使得重大改革（税收、儿童保育、支出限制）在政治上风险过高，推迟了财长变革经济的议程。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-18/the-election-is-over-but-inflation-anxiety-remains/106155140