News Brief: Inflation Update
Summary
Australia’s inflation rate cooled to 3.4% year-on-year in November, down from 3.8% in October and below economist forecasts. Despite the slowdown, inflation remains above the RBA’s 2-3% target, leaving economists divided on the likelihood of an interest rate hike in February 2026.
Key Points
- Headline CPI: Rose 3.4% in the year to November, down from 3.8% in October.
- Underlying Inflation (Trimmed Mean): Eased slightly to 3.2% from 3.3%.
- Market Pricing: Markets see a 37% chance of a rate hike in February; a 0.25% hike is fully priced in by June 2026.
- Key Contributors: Housing (+5.2%) was the largest driver, followed by food (+3.3%) and transport (+2.7%).
- Electricity Prices: The annual increase slowed significantly to 19.7% in November from 37.1% in October.
- Economist Views: Major banks are split, with CBA and NAB forecasting a February hike, while ANZ and Westpac expect rates to hold.
- Next Data Point: The ABS will release December and quarterly CPI data at the end of January, ahead of the RBA’s February meeting.
新闻简报：通胀数据更新
总结
澳大利亚11月份的年通胀率降至3.4%，低于10月份的3.8%，且未达到经济学家预期。尽管有所放缓，通胀率仍高于澳联储2-3%的目标区间，导致经济学家对2026年2月是否加息意见不一。
关键要点
- 总体CPI：截至11月的一年内上涨3.4%，低于10月份的3.8%。
- 潜在通胀（截尾均值）：从3.3%微降至3.2%。
- 市场预期：市场认为2月加息概率为37%；预计到2026年6月将累计加息0.25%。
- 主要推手：住房成本（+5.2%）是最大贡献者，其次是食品与非酒精饮料（+3.3%）和交通（+2.7%）。
- 电价：年增长率从10月的37.1%大幅放缓至11月的19.7%。
- 经济学家观点：各大银行预测分歧，联邦银行和国民银行预计2月加息，而澳新银行和西太平洋银行预计利率将维持不变。
- 下一个数据点：澳大利亚统计局将于1月底发布12月和季度CPI数据，为澳联储2月会议提供最新参考。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-07/inflation-abs-monthly-cpi-for-november/106205848