News Brief: Used Vehicle Price Forecast
Summary
Cox Automotive forecasts a modest 2% year-end increase in wholesale used vehicle prices for 2026, signaling a return to long-term stability after the extreme volatility of recent years.
Key Points
- Price Forecast: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is projected to end 2026 2% higher than December 2025.
- Historical Context: A 2% year-end increase aligns with the average annual move since 1998, excluding the outlier years of 2021-2022.
- Recent Volatility: This follows two years of minimal growth (0.4% each) and significant declines in 2023 (-7%) and 2022 (-14.7%) after the pandemic-driven price surge (up 46.6% in 2021).
- Consumer Impact: Stability benefits buyers, but retail prices remain above pre-pandemic levels and adjust slower than wholesale prices.
- Market Outlook: Positive indicators like lower auto loan rates and increased tax refunds could boost demand, even as total used vehicle sales are forecast to dip slightly by 0.9% in 2026.
新闻简报：二手车价格预测
摘要
考克斯汽车公司预测，2026年批发二手车价格将以2%的涨幅收官，这表明在近年极端波动后，市场正回归长期稳定状态。
关键点
- 价格预测：曼海姆二手车价值指数预计在2026年底将比2025年12月水平高出2%。
- 历史背景：2%的年终涨幅与1998年以来的平均年度变动一致（不包括2021-2022年的异常值年份）。
- 近期波动：此前两年价格仅微增0.4%，而在2023年(-7%)和2022年(-14.7%)出现显著下跌，这发生在疫情导致价格飙升（2021年上涨46.6%）之后。
- 消费者影响：价格稳定对买家有利，但零售价仍高于疫情前水平，且调整速度慢于批发价。
- 市场展望：更低的汽车贷款利率和增加的退税等积极因素可能刺激需求，尽管2026年二手车总销量预计将小幅下降0.9%。
Original Article Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/08/used-vehicle-prices-2026-cox-forecast.html