‘Let’s be clear, it’s too high’: RBA deputy downplays easing inflation

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RBA Holds Firm: No Rate Cuts in Sight, February Decision Looms

Summary

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has reinforced the bank’s stance that interest rate cuts are highly unlikely in the near term, despite recent data showing a moderation in inflation. The central bank’s priority remains returning inflation to its 2-3% target band.

Key Points

  • No Near-Term Rate Cuts: Hauser confirmed the RBA’s view that the likelihood of rate cuts soon is “very low,” aligning with Governor Michele Bullock’s recent comments.
  • Inflation Still Too High: While November’s CPI inflation eased to 3.4%, Hauser stressed it remains above the target range, and the latest data held “not a lot of news” for the bank.
  • Focus on the Future: The RBA targets inflation “in a year or two years’ time,” considering a broad range of economic variables, not just the latest monthly number.
  • February Meeting in Focus: The next key decision is on February 3. The RBA will review critical quarterly inflation data due in late January before finalizing its outlook.
  • Two Potential Paths to Cuts: Hauser outlined two scenarios that could lead to future rate cuts: an “unwelcome” economic weakening or a “welcome” scenario where the economy’s supply capacity proves stronger than expected.
  • Geopolitical Risks: Events like the US strikes on Venezuela create new pressures but also potential benefits (e.g., lower oil prices), contributing to a complex global outlook for 2026.

澳洲联储立场坚定：近期降息无望，二月会议成为焦点

摘要

澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）副行长安德鲁·豪泽重申了该行的立场，即尽管近期数据显示通胀有所缓和，但在短期内降息的可能性极低。央行的首要任务仍是将通胀率恢复到2-3%的目标区间。

关键要点

  • 近期不会降息：豪泽确认了澳储行的观点，即短期内降息的可能性”非常低”，这与行长米歇尔·布洛克近期的言论一致。

    • 通胀仍然过高：尽管11月份CPI通胀率放缓至3.4%，但豪泽强调其仍高于目标区间，且最新数据对央行而言”没有太多新信息”。

  • 着眼未来通胀：澳储行的目标是”一年或两年后”的通胀率，其决策基于广泛的经济变量，而不仅仅是最新的月度数据。
  • 聚焦二月会议：下一次关键决策将于2月3日公布。澳储行将在1月底审查关键的季度通胀数据，然后最终确定其经济展望。
  • 降息的两种可能路径：豪泽概述了未来可能导致降息的两种情况：一是经济出现”不受欢迎的”疲软；二是出现”受欢迎的”情景，即经济的供给能力被证明强于预期。
  • 地缘政治风险：诸如美国对委内瑞拉的打击等事件带来了新的压力，但也可能带来潜在好处（例如降低油价），使得2026年的全球前景变得复杂。

Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-08/rba-deputy-andrew-hauser-inflation-interest-rates/106208716

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