News Brief: RBA’s Long-Term Inflation Focus Suggests Rate Rise Not Imminent
Summary
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasizes a long-term, holistic view on inflation targeting, indicating the bank is in no rush to raise interest rates despite recent high inflation data. The RBA prefers to assess broader economic trends rather than react to single data points.
Key Points
- Long-Term Horizon: The RBA targets inflation “in a year or two years’ time,” not just current figures. Hauser downplayed the significance of a potential slight miss in Q4 2025 inflation forecasts.
- No Automatic Triggers: The bank explicitly rejects having a pre-set rule (e.g., a specific Q4 inflation number) to automatically trigger a rate move. Decisions are based on a “view of the whole economy.”
- Open to Various Scenarios: The RBA is considering possibilities where inflation returns to target without further rate hikes, due to factors like weaker jobs markets, global shocks, or positive productivity surprises.
- Neutral Stance for Now: With the cash rate at 3.6%, considered fairly neutral, the RBA feels well-positioned to “wait and assess” the economy’s direction in early 2024.
- Historical Caution: The RBA has a history of avoiding rapid policy reversals. A February hike would be an unusually quick flip after the August 2023 cut.
- Inflation Still Too High: Hauser was clear that inflation above 3% is “too high,” but the threshold for immediate action appears high, favoring a patient approach.
新闻简报：澳洲联储着眼长期通胀，暗示加息可能尚需时日
摘要
澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）副行长安德鲁·豪泽强调，央行在通胀目标上采取长期、全面的视角，这表明尽管近期通胀数据高企，央行并不急于提高利率。澳洲联储倾向于评估更广泛的经济趋势，而非对单一数据点做出反应。
关键点
- 长期视野：澳洲联储的目标是未来”一两年内”的通胀，而不仅仅是当前数据。豪泽淡化了2025年第四季度通胀预测可能出现的微小偏差的重要性。
- 无自动触发机制：央行明确否认有任何预设规则（例如，特定的第四季度通胀数字）来自动触发利率变动。决策基于”对整体经济的判断”。
- 考虑多种情景：澳洲联储正在考虑通胀无需进一步加息即可回归目标范围的可能性，原因可能包括就业市场疲软、全球冲击或生产率出现积极惊喜。
- 当前持中性立场：鉴于现金利率处于3.6%这一相对中性的水平，澳洲联储认为其有充分条件在2024年初”等待并评估”经济走向。
- 历史性的谨慎：澳洲联储历史上避免政策快速逆转。若在2024年2月加息，将是在2023年8月降息后一次异常迅速的政策翻转。
- 通胀仍过高：豪泽明确表示，高于3%的通胀”太高”，但立即采取行动的阈值似乎很高，央行更倾向于采取耐心的态度。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-09/rba-deputy-governor-andrew-hauser-interest-rates-inflation-janda/106210128