Market & Economic News Brief
Summary
Financial markets are pricing in a higher risk of imminent RBA interest rate hikes following strong household spending data, triggering an Australian bond sell-off. The Australian dollar rose above 66 US cents. Separately, former Treasurer Peter Costello’s comments on arresting Australia’s fertility decline sparked public debate.
Key Points
- RBA Rate Hike Risk: Leading economists warn the risk of an “imminent” RBA rate hike is rising. Markets now fully price a hike by September 2026, with potential for more.
- Bond Sell-Off: Australian government bond yields surged to one-year highs (10-year at 4.69%) on rate hike speculation.
- Strong Household Spending: ABS data shows household spending growth accelerated to 5.6% annually in October, the strongest pace since September 2023, with discretionary spending up 1.6% for the month.
- Currency Movement: The Australian dollar climbed above 66 US cents, approaching a one-year high, bolstered by the spending data.
- Market Close: The ASX 200 closed modestly higher, up 0.3% to 8,618 points.
- Fertility Rate Debate: Peter Costello urged action on Australia’s declining fertility rate, drawing mixed public reactions regarding affordability and living standards.
- Help to Buy Launch: The federal government’s shared-equity “Help to Buy” scheme begins for most states and territories from January 9.
- Trade Surplus Widens: Australia’s goods trade surplus increased in October, though figures were influenced by volatile non-monetary gold exports.
Market Snapshot (as at ~4:45pm AEDT)
- ASX 200: +3% at 8,618
- AUD/USD: +0.2% at 66.12¢
- Bitcoin: -0.4% at $93,070
- Iron Ore: +0.4% at $107.77/tonne
市场与经济新闻简报
摘要
强劲的家庭支出数据公布后，金融市场对澳洲联储即将加息的预期升温，引发澳大利亚债券抛售。澳元兑美元汇率升至66美分以上。此外，前财长彼得·科斯特洛关于遏制澳大利亚生育率下降的言论引发了公众讨论。
关键点
- 澳洲联储加息风险： 主要经济学家警告，澳洲联储”即将”加息的风险正在增加。市场目前已完全定价到2026年9月会加息，且可能不止一次。
- 债券抛售： 因加息猜测，澳大利亚政府债券收益率飙升至一年高点（10年期国债收益率达4.69%）。
- 家庭支出强劲： 澳大利亚统计局数据显示，10月份家庭支出年增长率加速至5.6%，为2023年9月以来最强增速，当月可自由支配支出增长1.6%。
- 汇率变动： 受支出数据支撑，澳元兑美元汇率升至66美分以上，接近一年高点。
- 市场收盘： 澳大利亚标普/ASX 200指数小幅收高，上涨0.3%，报8618点。
- 生育率辩论： 彼得·科斯特洛呼吁采取行动应对澳大利亚生育率下降，公众反应不一，涉及生活成本与生活标准等问题。
- “助力购房”计划启动： 联邦政府的共享产权”助力购房”计划于1月9日在大多数州和领地启动。
- 贸易顺差扩大： 澳大利亚10月份商品贸易顺差增加，但数据受到波动较大的非货币黄金出口影响。
市场概览（截至澳大利亚东部夏令时约下午4:45）
- ASX 200指数：+3%，报8618点
- 澳元/美元：+0.2%，报66.12美分
- 比特币：-0.4%，报93,070美元
- 铁矿石：+0.4%，报107.77美元/吨
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-04/asx-markets-business-news-live-updates-december-4/106099782