Economic News Brief
Summary
Australia’s GDP grew 0.4% in the September quarter, with annual growth rising to 2.1%. Growth was driven by strong private investment (notably in data centers) and household consumption, though a drawdown in inventories tempered the headline figure. For the first time, rooftop solar generation was included in national accounts, revealing household savings of ~$3 billion in 2024-25.
Key Points
- GDP Growth: Quarterly growth of 0.4%, annual rate up to 2.1% from 2.0%.
- Growth Drivers: Private investment (+0.5ppt to GDP), especially machinery/equipment (up 7.6%) linked to data center expansion for AI/cloud. Housing investment also contributed (+0.2ppt).
- Key Drag: Reduction in inventories as stocks were used to meet strong demand.
- Economist Views: Underlying domestic demand is strong (+1.2%). The inventory drawdown signals supply constraints, not weak demand, potentially keeping inflation pressure up and reducing near-term chance of RBA rate cuts.
- Rooftop Solar Impact: First inclusion in accounts. Saved households ~$3B ($125/person) in 2024-25. Over 4 million homes (1 in 3) have solar, generating ~8% of Australia’s electricity.
- Next RBA Meeting: December 8-9. Today’s data may lead to a more hawkish tone.
经济新闻简报
摘要
澳大利亚第三季度GDP增长0.4%，年增长率升至2.1%。增长由强劲的私人投资（尤其是数据中心）和家庭消费推动，但库存减少拉低了整体数据。国家账户首次纳入屋顶太阳能发电数据，显示2024-25年度家庭节省约30亿澳元电费。
关键点
- GDP增长：季度增长0.4%，年增长率从2.0%升至2.1%。
- 增长动力：私人投资（为GDP贡献+0.5个百分点），特别是机械和设备投资（增长7.6%）与为支持人工智能和云计算的数据中心扩张相关。住房投资也有贡献（+0.2个百分点）。
- 主要拖累：为满足强劲需求而减少库存，拖累了增长。
- 经济学家观点：国内需求强劲（+1.2%）。库存减少表明经济面临供应限制而非需求疲软，这可能持续带来通胀压力，降低澳联储近期降息的可能性。
- 屋顶太阳能影响：首次纳入国家统计。2024-25年度为家庭节省约30亿澳元（人均125澳元）。超过400万家庭（约三分之一）安装太阳能板，发电量约占全国总发电量的8%。
- 澳联储下次会议：12月8-9日。今日数据可能导致其采取更鹰派的立场。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-03/september-quarter-gdp-2025-shows-economy-growing/106094160