Commercial Real Estate News Brief
Summary
Commercial real estate transaction growth turned negative year-over-year in October 2025 for the first time in nearly two years, signaling a prolonged “U-shaped” recovery due to high interest rates and economic uncertainty. While total dollar volume for 2025 remains above 2024, growth momentum has slowed significantly.
Key Points
- Negative Growth Milestone: October 2025 marked the first month of negative year-over-year transaction volume growth since early 2024, breaking a recovery streak.
- Cause of Slowdown: The stall is attributed to a buyer-seller stalemate, persistently high interest rates, and policy/economic uncertainty, lengthening the recovery bottom.
- Market Activity: October saw $24.4B in sales (~70% of Oct 2019 levels). Year-to-date dollar volume remains higher than 2024, but growth has decelerated since 2023.
- Sector Performance: Industrial and multifamily led the top deals. Hotels were the only sector with positive year-over-year volume growth (+6%). Multifamily saw a 27% monthly pullback.
- Notable Deals & Trends:
- The New York Edition hotel sold for $231.2M, highlighting asset repurposing (from historic office tower to luxury hotel).
- Office sector recovery remains rocky, featuring discounts and conversions (e.g., Sotheby’s HQ likely to become medical offices).
- Sales like a distressed Manhattan office building at a ~50% discount show institutional interest, suggesting a long-term value floor for offices in good markets.
商业地产新闻简报
总结
2025年10月，商业地产交易量同比增长自近两年来首次转为负值，表明由于高利率和经济不确定性，复苏进程延长，呈现”U型”底部。尽管2025年总交易金额仍高于2024年，但增长势头自2023年以来已显著放缓。
关键要点
- 增长转负里程碑：2025年10月标志着自2024年初以来，交易量同比增长首次转为负值，打破了复苏连续势头。
- 放缓原因：停滞归因于买卖双方的僵局、持续高利率以及政策/经济的不确定性，拉长了复苏底部的持续时间。
- 市场活跃度：10月销售额为244亿美元（约是2019年10月的70%）。年初至今的总交易金额仍高于2024年，但自2023年以来增长已减速。
- 板块表现：工业和多户住宅引领最大交易。酒店是唯一实现同比交易量正增长（+6%）的板块。多户住宅月度交易量大幅回调27%。
- 显著交易与趋势：
- 纽约 Edition 酒店以2.312亿美元售出，凸显了资产用途转换（从历史性办公大楼改为豪华酒店）。
- 办公板块复苏依然崎岖，以折价出售和用途转换为主（例如，苏富比总部可能改为医疗办公室）。
- 类似曼哈顿困境办公大楼以约50%折扣出售的交易，显示了机构投资者的兴趣，表明优质市场办公楼的长期价值底部得到支撑。
Original Article Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/09/commercial-real-estate-deals-october.html