Economic News Brief
Summary
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest forecasts indicate persistent cost-of-living pressures, with inflation expected to remain higher for longer. While economic growth, unemployment, and productivity show stability or improvement, real wage growth is lagging, and further interest rate cuts are now considered unlikely by many economists.
Key Points
- Economic Growth: The RBA forecasts annual economic growth of around 2% for the foreseeable future, partly driven by housing investment.
- Unemployment & Productivity: The recent unemployment spike is seen as temporary, with the rate expected to remain stable. Productivity growth is improving but remains mediocre by historical standards.
- Inflation & Wages: Inflation is “notably higher than expected” and forecast to peak at 3.7% next June. Wage growth is not forecast to keep pace, meaning a fall in workers’ purchasing power.
- Interest Rates: Market expectations for rate cuts have been slashed. Many economists now expect no cuts through 2025, with some predicting the next move could be a rate hike in 2027.
- Mortgage Rates: Competition has led to lower variable mortgage rate “spreads,” meaning effective rates are lower than pre-pandemic norms. However, these spreads are likely to increase in the future.
经济新闻简报
总结
澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）的最新预测显示，生活成本压力将持续存在，通胀预计将在更长时间内保持较高水平。尽管经济增长、失业率和生产率显示出稳定或改善，但实际工资增长滞后，许多经济学家现在认为进一步降息的可能性很小。
关键点
- 经济增长：澳洲联储预测，在可预见的未来，年经济增长率将保持在2%左右，部分动力来自住房投资。
- 失业率与生产率：近期的失业率飙升被视为暂时现象，预计失业率将保持稳定。生产率增长正在改善，但按历史标准仍属平庸。
- 通胀与工资：通胀”显著高于预期”，预计明年6月将升至3.7%的峰值。工资增长预计无法跟上通胀步伐，这意味着工人的购买力将再次下降。
- 利率：市场对降息的预期已大幅削减。许多经济学家现在预计到2025年底都不会降息，有些人预测下一步行动可能是2027年加息。
- 抵押贷款利率：银行间的竞争导致浮动抵押贷款利率的”利差”降低，意味着有效利率低于疫情前的标准。然而，这些利差未来很可能会上升。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-04/rba-interest-rates-statement-on-monetary-policy-analysis/105969494