News Brief: English
Summary
Australia’s population is projected to hit 28 million in 2026, despite a significant slowdown in growth driven by falling net overseas migration and birth rates. Melbourne is forecast to become the country’s largest city by 2066.
Key Points
- Population Growth: Forecast to slow to a record low of 1.3% in 2025, reaching 28 million people in 2026.
- Net Overseas Migration: Expected to fall to 260,000 in 2026, roughly half the 2023 post-pandemic peak, due to temporary visa expiries.
- Birth Rate: Projected to fall to 1.45 children per woman in 2026, remaining below the replacement level of 2.1.
- Major Cities: Melbourne is forecast to become Australia’s most populous city, reaching 9.1 million by 2066. Sydney and Melbourne are both projected to pass 8 million in the 2050s.
- Other Trends: Dementia is now the leading cause of death. Western Australia will have the highest growth rate, while Tasmania and South Australia the slowest.
新闻简报：中文
摘要
尽管净海外移民和出生率下降导致人口增长显著放缓，但澳大利亚人口预计将在2026年达到2800万。墨尔本预计到2066年将成为全国人口最多的城市。
关键点
- 人口增长：预计2025年将放缓至1.3%的历史低点，2026年总人口达到2800万。
- 净海外移民：预计2026年将降至26万人，约为2023年疫情后峰值的一半，主要原因是临时签证到期。
- 出生率：预计2026年将降至每名妇女1.45个孩子，持续低于2.1的人口更替水平。
- 主要城市：墨尔本预计到2066年将成为澳大利亚人口最多的城市，达910万人。悉尼和墨尔本都预计在2050年代突破800万人口。
- 其他趋势：痴呆症已成为首要死因。西澳大利亚州人口增长率将最高，而塔斯马尼亚州和南澳大利亚州增长最慢。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-09/australias-population-to-reach-28-million-in-2026/106213420