News Brief: Unemployment Rate Drops Ahead of RBA Meeting
Summary
Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% in December, strengthening the case for a potential interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank at its upcoming February meeting.
Key Points
- Unemployment Rate: Dropped to 4.1% in December (seasonally adjusted), down from 4.3%.
- Job Growth: Employment rose by 65,000 people, driven by a significant increase in full-time positions (55,000).
- Market Shift: Probability of a February rate hike jumped to ~54% following the data release, from a previous market expectation of ~25%.
- Key Driver: Increase in employment among younger people (aged 15-24) helped push the unemployment rate down.
- Economist Views: Data was “significantly stronger” than expected, leading some to warn a rate hike may be needed to tame inflation.
- Contrasting Data: SEEK job ads fell by 1.2% in December, pointing to some economic softness.
- Next Watch: December quarterly inflation data (released Jan 31) will be the critical factor for the RBA’s February 3 decision.
新闻简报：失业率下降，澳储行议息会议在即
摘要
澳大利亚12月失业率意外降至4.1%，这增强了澳大利亚储备银行在即将到来的2月会议上可能加息的理由。
关键点
- 失业率：经季节调整后，12月降至4.1%，低于11月的4.3%。
- 就业增长：就业人数增加6.5万人，主要由全职岗位（5.5万）增长推动。
- 市场预期转变：数据发布后，市场对2月加息的概率预期跃升至约54%，此前约为25%。
- 关键因素：年轻人（15-24岁）就业增加是拉低失业率的部分原因。
- 经济学家观点：数据”显著强于”预期，一些经济学家警告可能需要加息以抑制通胀。
- 矛盾数据：SEEK招聘广告12月下降1.2%，表明经济存在疲软迹象。
- 后续关注：12月季度通胀数据（1月31日发布）将是澳储行2月3日决定的关键因素。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-22/abs-jobs-unemployment-december-2025-figures/106256288