Here’s what to expect from the RBA this year with rate hikes on the table

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News Brief: RBA 2026 Outlook & Interest Rates

Summary

The outlook for Australian interest rates has shifted from potential cuts to discussions of hikes. The RBA’s first 2026 meeting is in February, with markets pricing in a high chance of increases later in the year. Key inflation data this week will be crucial for the RBA’s decision-making.

Key Points

  • Rate Shift: The discussion has moved from potential rate cuts to an extended hold or possible rate hikes, as stated by RBA Governor Michele Bullock.
  • Next Meeting: The RBA board meets on February 2-3, 2026. The cash rate currently sits at 3.6%.
  • Market Expectations: Markets see a 34% chance of a hike in February, rising to 93% by June. A 0.25% hike is fully priced in by August.
  • Economist Views: Major banks are split: NAB and CBA forecast hikes starting February, while Westpac and ANZ see an extended hold with hike risks.
  • Key Data: The RBA is focused on inflation (CPI) and employment data. November CPI is released January 7, December CPI on January 28, and December labor figures on January 22.
  • 2026 Meeting Schedule: The RBA meets eight times: Feb 3, Mar 17, May 5, Jun 16, Aug 11, Sep 29, Nov 3, Dec 8.
  • Impact on Loans & Savings: A 0.25% rate hike could increase minimum monthly mortgage repayments by $90-$150 for loans of $600k-$1M. Savings rates average 3.07%, but better rates are available.

新闻简报：澳洲联储2026年展望与利率

摘要

澳大利亚利率前景已从潜在降息转向讨论加息。澳洲联储（RBA）2026年首次会议将于2月举行，市场预计今年晚些时候加息可能性很高。本周的关键通胀数据将对RBA的决策至关重要。

关键点

  • 利率转向：讨论已从潜在降息转向延长暂停或可能加息，正如RBA行长米歇尔·布洛克所表明的。
  • 下次会议：RBA董事会将于2026年2月2日至3日召开会议。当前现金利率为3.6%。
  • 市场预期：市场认为2月加息概率约为34%，到6月升至93%。到8月，市场已完全定价加息0.25%。
  • 经济学家观点：各大银行意见分歧：澳洲国民银行（NAB）和联邦银行（CBA）预测2月开始加息，而西太平洋银行（Westpac）和澳新银行（ANZ）则认为将延长暂停，但存在加息风险。
  • 关键数据：RBA重点关注通胀（CPI）和就业数据。11月CPI于1月7日发布，12月CPI于1月28日发布，12月劳动力数据于1月22日发布。
  • 2026年会议日程：RBA今年召开八次会议：2月3日、3月17日、5月5日、6月16日、8月11日、9月29日、11月3日、12月8日。
  • 对贷款和储蓄的影响：加息0.25%可能使60万至100万澳元贷款的最低月还款额增加90至150澳元。储蓄利率平均为3.07%，但货比三家可找到更高利率。

Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-06/what-to-expect-from-rba-interest-rates-in-2026-hikes-on-table/106200132

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