Property Market Brief: Australia
Summary
Australian housing market growth slowed significantly in December 2025, with Sydney and Melbourne recording price declines for the first time in nearly a year. Despite this, the national market saw an 8.6% annual gain. Experts attribute the slowdown to affordability constraints, cost-of-living pressures, and speculation about potential interest rate hikes. The outlook for 2026 is subdued, with price growth expected to be heavily influenced by the direction of interest rates.
Key Points
- December Slowdown: National home values rose only 0.7% in December, the smallest monthly gain in five months. Sydney and Melbourne prices fell by 0.1%.
- Strong Annual Growth: Despite the late-year slowdown, the national median dwelling value surged 8.6% in 2025, adding approximately $71,400.
- Market Divergence: Adelaide and Perth led capital city growth in December (both +1.9%), while Canberra saw minimal growth (+0.2%).
- Affordability Crisis: High prices, especially in Sydney (median $1.5M), are making entry very difficult for first-home buyers. More affordable options exist in Melbourne apartments and some smaller capitals.
- 2026 Outlook: Price growth is expected to be “much more subdued.” The key factor will be interest rates, with potential hikes likely to cap growth. New lending restrictions on high-risk loans may also tighten credit.
- Opposing Forces: Low housing supply (few listings, insufficient new builds) continues to support prices, offsetting weaker demand due to affordability issues.
房地产市场简报：澳大利亚
摘要
2025年12月，澳大利亚房地产市场增长显著放缓，悉尼和墨尔本房价出现近一年来的首次下跌。尽管如此，全国房价年度涨幅仍达8.6%。专家将增长放缓归因于负担能力限制、生活成本压力以及对潜在加息的猜测。2026年市场前景趋于平淡，房价增长预计将深受利率走向的影响。
关键点
- 12月增长放缓：12月全国房价仅上涨0.7%，为五个月来最小月度涨幅。悉尼和墨尔本房价下跌0.1%。
- 年度增长强劲：尽管年底放缓，2025年全国住宅中位价仍大幅上涨8.6%，增值约71,400澳元。
- 市场分化：12月，阿德莱德和珀斯领跑首府城市房价增长（均+1.9%），而堪培拉增长微弱（+0.2%）。
- 负担能力危机：高房价（尤其是悉尼，中位价150万澳元）使首次购房者难以入市。墨尔本的公寓和一些较小的首府城市仍有更多可负担的选择。
- 2026年展望：房价增长预计将”更加平淡”。关键影响因素是利率，潜在的加息可能会限制增长。针对高风险贷款的新借贷限制也可能收紧信贷。
- 对立因素：住房供应不足（挂牌量少，新建不足）继续支撑房价，抵消了因负担能力问题导致的需求疲软。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-02/national-house-price-hit-speed-bump-property-market/106185196