Market Brief: 2025 Year-End Review & 2026 Outlook
Summary
The Australian share market (ASX) concluded a volatile 2025 with significant gains in gold and lithium stocks, despite threats of trade wars from former US President Donald Trump. While the ASX 200 hit a record high in October, it has since retreated and underperformed compared to major global indices. Analysts expect resources and certain AI-related stocks to continue performing well in 2026, albeit amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Key Points
- Market Performance: The ASX 200 rose 10% (including dividends) in 2025, but lagged behind the S&P 500 (18%), Nikkei (28%), and KOSPI (76%).
- Lithium Surge: Stocks like Liontown Resources (+180%), Core Lithium (+220%), and PLS (+89%) soared due to rebounding lithium prices, government support, and EV demand expectations.
- Gold Rally: Gold miners (e.g., Regis Resources, Evolution Mining) saw shares triple as gold prices hit record highs, driven by central bank buying and global uncertainty.
- “TACO” Trade: Markets adapted to Trump’s tariff threats with the “Trump Always Chickens Out” strategy, betting on eventual market rebounds after initial volatility.
- Sector Divergence: Resources outperformed, while Technology and Healthcare were the worst sectors (e.g., CSL -39%, WiseTech -45%) due to high valuations and company-specific issues.
- Currency & Rates: The Australian dollar strengthened on expectations of 2026 rate hikes (due to persistent inflation), contrasting with anticipated cuts in other major economies.
- 2026 Outlook: Analysts forecast moderate ASX returns (8-10%), with continued strength in resources (copper, gold) and potential comebacks in oversold tech. Volatility may persist pending final US-China tariff outcomes, but Trump’s market impact is expected to diminish.
市场简报：2025年终回顾与2026展望
摘要
尽管面临美国前总统特朗普的贸易战威胁，澳大利亚股市（ASX）在波动剧烈的2025年结束时，黄金和锂矿股大幅上涨。虽然ASX 200指数在10月创下历史新高，但此后回落，并且表现逊于全球主要股指。分析师预计，尽管地缘政治不确定性持续存在，资源和某些AI相关股票在2026年将继续表现良好。
关键要点
- 市场表现：ASX 200指数在2025年上涨10%（含股息），但落后于标普500指数（18%）、日经指数（28%）和韩国综合指数（76%）。
- 锂矿股飙升：由于锂价反弹、政府支持和电动汽车需求预期，Liontown Resources（+180%）、Core Lithium（+220%）和PLS（+89%）等股票大幅上涨。
- 黄金股上涨：随着金价创下历史新高，黄金矿商（如Regis Resources, Evolution Mining）股价上涨约两倍，这主要受央行购金和全球不确定性推动。
- “TACO”交易策略：市场通过”特朗普总是退缩”的策略来适应其关税威胁，押注在最初波动后市场最终会反弹。
- 板块分化：资源板块表现优异，而科技和医疗保健成为最差板块（例如CSL -39%，WiseTech -45%），原因是估值过高和公司特定问题。
- 货币与利率：因预期2026年加息（由于持续通胀），澳元走强，这与其他主要经济体预期的降息形成对比。
- 2026年展望：分析师预测ASX将有温和回报（8-10%），资源（铜、黄金）将继续走强，超卖的科技股可能复苏。在美中关税最终结果出炉前，波动可能持续，但特朗普对市场的影响预计将减弱。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-31/asx-ends-stressful-year-with-gold-and-lithium-stocks-surging/106188730