Here’s what to expect for commercial real estate in 2026

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Commercial Real Estate 2026 Outlook: Stabilization and Recovery on the Horizon

Summary

After a challenging 2025 marked by economic slowdown and higher unemployment, the commercial real estate (CRE) sector is forecast to enter a phase of stabilization and recovery in 2026. Key drivers include declining interest rates, returning capital, and signs of price stability, though risks from tariffs and consumer fragility remain.

Key Points

  • General Sentiment: Industry outlook reports use terms like “new equilibrium” and “ongoing recovery.” While executive optimism is slightly down from 2024, it remains above 2023 levels.
  • Capital Markets: Capital is re-engaging selectively. Sales volume is forecast to rise 15-20% in 2026. Cap rates are poised to move lower, and lending activity increased 35% year-over-year in 2025.
  • Office Sector: Widely believed to have bottomed. Vacancy rates expected to drop below 18%. A strong “flight to quality” continues, with Class A space in high demand and construction at a 30+ year low.
  • Industrial & Retail: Industrial vacancy peaking, with demand fueled by reshoring and data centers. Retail is shifting toward smaller footprints in mixed-use, walkable environments.
  • Multifamily & Data Centers: Multifamily rent growth easing due to record new supply. Data centers were 2025’s top performer but face headwinds from community pushback and grid constraints.
  • REITs: Public-to-private deals and M&A are expected to accelerate. REIT stocks, laggards in 2025, may outperform in 2026 as valuation gaps close.
  • Risks: Tariffs threaten consumer spending. Economic uncertainty and local regulations persist as investor headwinds.

2026年商业地产展望：稳定与复苏在望

摘要

在经历了经济放缓、失业率上升的2025年之后，商业地产（CRE）行业预计将在2026年进入稳定和复苏阶段。主要驱动因素包括利率下降、资本回流以及价格趋稳的迹象，但关税和消费者疲软带来的风险依然存在。

关键要点

  • 整体情绪：行业展望报告使用”新平衡”、”持续复苏”等词汇。尽管高管乐观情绪较2024年略有下降，但仍高于2023年水平。
  • 资本市场：资本正在选择性回归。预计2026年销售额将增长15-20%。资本化率预计将下降，2025年贷款活动同比增长了35%。
  • 办公板块：普遍认为已触底。空置率预计将降至18%以下。”追求品质”趋势持续，甲级写字楼需求旺盛，新开工量处于30多年来的最低水平。
  • 工业与零售：工业地产空置率见顶，需求由产业回流和数据中心推动。零售业正转向小型化、混合用途、适宜步行的环境。
  • 多户住宅与数据中心：多户住宅因供应创纪录而租金增长放缓。数据中心是2025年的明星板块，但面临社区抵制和电网限制等阻力。
  • REITs（房地产投资信托基金）：预计公私交易和并购将加速。2025年表现落后的REIT股票可能在2026年因估值差距缩小而跑赢大盘。
  • 风险：关税威胁消费者支出。经济不确定性和地方监管仍是投资者面临的不利因素。

Original Article Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/30/commercial-real-estate-2026-what-to-expect.html

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