News Brief: Leather Goods Face Sustained Price Hikes Due to Tariffs and Supply Chain Strain
Summary
Leather goods prices are rising sharply at retail, driven by a combination of new tariffs, global supply chain disruptions, and a shrinking U.S. cattle herd. Analysts project prices could increase by roughly 22% over the next two years, creating significant margin pressure for companies and higher costs for consumers.
Key Points
- Price Impact: Retail prices for boots, handbags, and furniture are rising, some at near double-digit rates. The Yale Budget Lab projects leather goods prices will remain elevated by nearly 22% for the next 1-2 years.
- Company Strain: Brands like Twisted X, Tapestry (owner of Coach), and Steve Madden face sustained margin pressure from higher tariffs, freight costs, and scarce raw hides.
- Tariff Chaos: Sweeping tariffs caused immediate disruption, forcing companies to pause shipments and recalculate costs hourly. Heavy reliance on imports from China, Vietnam, Italy, and India amplified the shock.
- Complex Supply Chain: A typical U.S. leather good’s journey—from U.S. hide to overseas tanning/assembly and back—became vastly more expensive and unpredictable overnight.
- Shifting Production: Companies rushed to exit China but faced new bottlenecks and tariffs in alternative countries like Vietnam, India, Cambodia, and Bangladesh.
- Domestic Decline: The U.S. leather manufacturing workforce has plummeted from over 300,000 in the 1950s to about 50,000 today, limiting options to pivot production home.
- Cattle Shortage: The U.S. cattle herd is at a 70-year low, reducing the supply of high-quality hides and increasing raw material costs.
- No Cheap Alternatives: Synthetic leather materials are also seeing cost increases, as many rely on petrochemical inputs from Asia that are also subject to new tariffs.
新闻简报：关税与供应链压力导致皮革制品价格持续上涨
摘要
受新关税、全球供应链中断以及美国牛群数量减少的共同影响，皮革制品零售价格正急剧上涨。分析师预测，未来两年价格可能上涨约22%，给企业带来巨大的利润压力，并推高消费者成本。
关键点
- 价格影响：靴子、手袋和家具的零售价格正在上涨，部分涨幅接近两位数。耶鲁预算实验室预测，未来1-2年内皮革制品价格将保持近22%的涨幅。
- 公司压力：Twisted X、Tapestry（Coach母公司）和Steve Madden等品牌因关税上涨、运费高昂和生皮稀缺而面临持续的利润压力。
- 关税冲击：全面关税导致即时混乱，迫使公司暂停运输并每小时重新计算成本。对中国、越南、意大利和印度进口的高度依赖加剧了冲击。
- 复杂供应链：一件典型美国皮革制品的旅程——从美国生皮到海外鞣制/组装再返回——在一夜之间变得成本高昂且难以预测。
- 转移生产：公司急于撤离中国，但在越南、印度、柬埔寨和孟加拉国等替代国家遇到了新的瓶颈和关税。
- 国内产业衰退：美国皮革制造业从业人员已从1950年代的30多万人骤降至如今的约5万人，限制了将生产转回国内的选择。
- 牛群短缺：美国牛群数量处于70年来最低点，减少了优质生皮的供应，推高了原材料成本。
- 无廉价替代品：合成皮革材料成本也在上升，因为许多材料依赖来自亚洲的石化原料，这些原料同样面临新关税。
Original Article Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/25/leather-prices-tariffs-trump-boots-handbags-furniture-twisted-x.html