EN News Brief
Summary
Despite falling consumer sentiment and economic anxieties, U.S. holiday retail spending remains robust, driven by low unemployment, high-income household spending, and emotional holiday priorities. However, consumers are increasingly value-conscious, trading down and hunting for deals, creating a complex and cautious economic picture.
Key Points
- Spending vs. Sentiment Gap: Consumer sentiment is near multi-year lows, yet holiday shopping turnout (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) hit a 9-year high. This “say-do gap” puzzles economists.
- Drivers of Resilience: Low unemployment, spending by high-income households (benefiting from asset values), and the emotional “moat” around holiday budgets are propping up sales.
- Value is King: Shoppers across income levels are seeking deals, benefiting value retailers (Walmart, T.J. Maxx) and major sale events like Black Friday.
- Inflation’s Role: Some sales growth comes from higher prices, not just volume. Fear of future price hikes may be accelerating purchases.
- Industry Caution: Retailers report “bumpy” trends and unpredictable consumers. Holiday hiring is at a 15-year low, and company forecasts remain guarded despite strong results.
- Underlying Strain: Consumers are making trade-offs (e.g., cutting personal spending to afford gifts). Growth may be inflation-driven, with weak volume growth indicating potential softness ahead.
中文新闻简报
摘要
尽管消费者信心下降且经济忧虑存在，美国假日零售支出依然强劲，这得益于低失业率、高收入家庭消费以及假日情感优先级。然而，消费者越来越注重价值，寻求降价和优惠，创造了一幅复杂而谨慎的经济图景。
关键点
- 支出与信心之间的差距：消费者信心接近多年低点，但假日购物人流量（感恩节至网络星期一）却创下9年新高。这种“言行差距”令经济学家困惑。
- 韧性的驱动因素：低失业率、高收入家庭消费（受益于资产价值）以及围绕假日预算的情感“护城河”支撑着销售额。
- 价值为王：各个收入水平的购物者都在寻找优惠，这使价值型零售商（沃尔玛、T.J. Maxx）和黑色星期五等大型促销活动受益。
- 通胀的作用：部分销售增长来自价格上涨，而不仅仅是销量。对未来涨价的担忧可能加速了购买行为。
- 行业谨慎态度：零售商报告趋势“颠簸”，消费者行为难以预测。假日招聘处于15年来最低水平，尽管业绩强劲，公司预测仍保持谨慎。
- 潜在压力：消费者正在做出权衡（例如，削减个人开支以负担礼物）。增长可能由通胀驱动，疲弱的销量增长预示着未来可能疲软。
Original Article Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/consumer-sentiment-retail-sales-holiday-walmart-tjx.html