News Brief: What Australia can learn from the great Kiwi interest rate hike experiment
Summary
The article examines New Zealand’s aggressive interest rate hikes post-COVID as a potential cautionary tale for Australia. While some critics argue the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) should have raised rates more, New Zealand’s experience of pushing its official cash rate to 5.5% has been linked to economic stagnation, a housing downturn, and significant population outflow, offering lessons on the risks of overtightening monetary policy.
Key Points
- Divergent Policy Paths: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) began raising rates aggressively in late 2021, peaking at 5.5% by mid-2023. The RBA’s rate hikes were more moderate, not exceeding 4.35%.
- New Zealand’s Economic Cost: The RBNZ’s policy is associated with multiple quarters of economic contraction, a rising unemployment rate (over 5.3%), falling house prices, and a net loss of approximately 50,000 citizens emigrating in the past year.
- RBA’s Dual Mandate: The article highlights that the RBA must balance controlling inflation with maintaining full employment, a framework that discourages deliberately inducing a recession.
- Australian Outcome: By avoiding a recession through measured rate moves and government spending, Australia has maintained lower unemployment, avoiding the severe economic and social costs seen in New Zealand.
- Current Stance: While the RBA may act if inflation resurges, the article suggests it is unlikely to mimic New Zealand’s extreme approach, having learned from the “experiment.”
新闻简报：澳大利亚能从新西兰激进的加息实验中学到什么
摘要
本文审视了新西兰在新冠疫情后激进的加息政策，将其作为对澳大利亚的一个潜在警示。尽管有批评者认为澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）本应更早、更大幅度地加息，但新西兰将官方现金利率推高至5.5%的经历，却与经济停滞、房地产市场下滑和显著的人口外流相关联，这为过度收紧货币政策的风险提供了教训。
关键点
- 不同的政策路径：新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）于2021年末开始激进加息，在2023年中达到5.5%的峰值。而澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）的加息更为温和，未超过4.35%。
- 新西兰的经济代价：RBNZ的政策与多个季度的经济收缩、失业率上升（超过5.3%）、房价下跌以及过去一年约5万公民净流失（移民）相关联。
- RBA的双重职责：文章强调，RBA必须在控制通胀和维持充分就业之间取得平衡，这一框架不鼓励故意引发经济衰退。
- 澳大利亚的结果：通过审慎的利率行动和政府支出，澳大利亚避免了经济衰退，维持了较低的失业率，规避了新西兰所经历的严重经济和社会成本。
- 当前立场：尽管RBA在通胀复燃时可能采取行动，但文章暗示其不太可能效仿新西兰的极端做法，并已从这次“实验”中吸取了教训。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-16/rba-interest-rates-what-australia-can-learn-from-new-zealand/106143194