Daily Real Estate Briefing
Summary
U.S. home prices have turned negative year-over-year for the first time in over two years, signaling a shift from the rapid appreciation of the pandemic era. While the national decline is modest, specific markets are experiencing more significant drops. High mortgage rates and shifting inventory dynamics are key factors influencing this cooling trend, with expectations of prices hovering near zero in the near term.
Key Points
- Price Decline: National home prices are down slightly year-over-year, marking the first negative reading since mid-2023. Prices have fallen 1.4% in the last three months alone.
- Market Divergence: Significant regional variations exist. Prices are down 10% in Austin and 5% in Denver, but up 6% in Cleveland and 5% in Chicago and New York City.
- Inventory Shift: Active listings in November were nearly 13% higher than a year ago, but new listings increased only 1.7%. Sellers are pulling homes off the market at a high rate.
- Affordability Shock: The sharp rise in mortgage rates from 2022-2023 priced out many buyers, reduced sales volume, and forced sellers to adjust expectations.
- Stagnant Mortgage Rates: Rates have moved in a narrow range for three months and showed little reaction to the latest Fed cut, contributing to market stagnation.
- Outlook: Analysts expect a period of national softness, with prices hovering around zero year-over-year, rather than a deep downturn or a return to double-digit gains.
每日房地产简报
摘要
美国房价在超过两年来首次出现同比下跌，标志着疫情时代房价快速上涨的态势发生转变。虽然全国范围内的跌幅不大，但部分市场正经历更显著的下滑。高抵押贷款利率和库存动态变化是导致市场降温的关键因素，预计近期房价将在零增长附近徘徊。
关键点
- 价格下跌：全国房价同比小幅下跌，这是自2023年中期以来的首次负增长。仅过去三个月，房价就下跌了1.4%。
- 市场分化：地区差异显著。奥斯汀房价下跌10%，丹佛下跌5%；而克利夫兰上涨6%，芝加哥和纽约市均上涨5%。
- 库存变化：11月份的活跃挂牌量比去年同期高出近13%，但新挂牌量仅增长1.7%。卖家正以异常高的速度将房屋撤出市场。
- 承受能力冲击：2022年至2023年抵押贷款利率的急剧上升使许多买家无力购房，销售量下降，并迫使卖家调整预期。
- 抵押贷款利率停滞：过去三个月利率在窄幅区间波动，对美联储最新的降息反应甚微，加剧了市场停滞。
- 前景展望：分析师预计全国市场将进入一段疲软期，房价同比变化将在零附近徘徊，既不会深度下跌，也不会重回两位数增长。
Original Article Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/us-home-prices-negative.html