News Brief: Australian Labour Market (English)
Summary
Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in November, but underlying data reveals a softening labour market with rising underemployment, a shrinking workforce, and falling participation. Economists suggest the market is at an “inflection point,” presenting challenges for the Reserve Bank’s future policy decisions.
Key Points
- Headline vs. Reality: Unemployment remained at 4.3%, but the underemployment rate surged from 5.7% to 6.2%, its highest in over a year.
- Market Contraction: The labour force shrank by 23,400 people; the participation rate fell to 66.7%. Total employment fell by 21,300, driven by a significant drop in full-time jobs (-57,000), partially offset by a rise in part-time work (+35,000).
- Economist Views: Analysts describe the figures as “nasty” and indicative that “all is not rosy.” The market is seen as “gradually losing momentum,” with unemployment expected to drift higher.
- RBA Policy Implications: The data suggests the labour market remains “too tight for comfort” for the RBA to comfortably return inflation to target. Most economists expect rates to stay on hold in the near term, but debate continues over potential hikes in 2026 due to persistent inflation risks from high unit labour costs.
- Forward Indicators: Signals are mixed, with job ads falling and business conditions weakening, suggesting firms are becoming more cautious about hiring.
新闻简报：澳大利亚劳动力市场 (中文)
摘要
澳大利亚11月份失业率维持在4.3%，但潜在数据显示劳动力市场正在走软：就业不足率上升、劳动力规模收缩、参与率下降。经济学家认为市场正处于”拐点”，这给澳大利亚储备银行未来的政策决策带来了挑战。
关键点
- 表象与现实：失业率维持在4.3%，但就业不足率从5.7%跃升至6.2%，为12个多月来的最高水平。
- 市场收缩：劳动力规模减少23,400人；参与率下降至66.7%。总就业人数减少21,300人，主要受全职工作岗位大幅减少（-57,000）驱动，兼职工作岗位的增加（+35,000）部分抵消了这一降幅。
- 经济学家观点：分析人士称这些数据”糟糕”，表明情况”并非一片大好”。市场被认为”逐渐失去动力”，预计失业率将逐步上升。
- 对澳储行政策的影响：数据表明，劳动力市场对澳储行而言仍然”过于紧张”，使其难以轻松地将通胀恢复至目标水平。大多数经济学家预计利率短期内将保持不变，但由于高单位劳动力成本带来的持续通胀风险，关于2026年可能加息的争论仍在继续。
- 前瞻性指标：信号好坏参半，招聘广告数量下降，商业环境近期走弱，表明企业对招聘变得更加谨慎。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-11/australia-unemployment-rate-november-2025/106129300