Energy Market Update: AEMO Revises Renewable Roadmap
Summary
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has significantly revised its long-term energy plan, scaling back forecasts for new wind farms and transmission lines while boosting expectations for solar, batteries, and household contributions to meet the 2030 renewable target.
Key Points
- Wind & Grid Downgrade: Forecast for new wind generation capacity by 2030 slashed from 42.6 GW to 26 GW. Planned new transmission lines reduced from 10,000km to ~6,000km by 2050 due to high costs and community opposition.
- Solar & Batteries Surge: Utility-scale solar forecast increased to 32 GW by 2030. Battery storage (4-8 hour duration) and rooftop solar are identified as transformative, filling gaps left by wind and grid delays.
- Household Heavy Lifting: By 2050, households are expected to provide 87 GW of rooftop solar and 27 GW of small-scale batteries. Coordinated, this could avoid $7.2B in grid-scale storage costs.
- Gas as Critical Backup: AEMO calls for 14 GW of new gas-fired capacity by 2050 to act as a backup during renewable droughts and to provide essential grid stability services.
- Coal’s Changing Role: Some coal plants may adapt with “two-shifting” (rapid cycling) and operate only in peak seasons, potentially extending their lives.
- Market Reality: Analysts note construction starts in 2024 are exclusively for solar and batteries, highlighting a faster market shift than planners can model. Wind deployment is severely lagging behind needed annual targets.
能源市场动态：AEMO修订可再生能源路线图
摘要
澳大利亚能源市场运营商（AEMO）大幅修订了其长期能源计划，下调了对新风电场和输电线路的预测，同时提升了对太阳能、电池储能以及家庭贡献的预期，以实现2030年可再生能源目标。
关键要点
- 风电与电网预期下调：到2030年新增风电装机预测从4260万千瓦大幅削减至2600万千瓦。到2050年计划新建输电线路从1万公里减少至约6000公里，原因是成本高昂和社区反对。
- 太阳能与电池储能激增：到2030年公用事业规模太阳能预测上调至3200万千瓦。电池储能（4-8小时）和屋顶太阳能被认定为变革性力量，填补风电和电网建设延迟留下的缺口。
- 家庭用户承担重任：到2050年，家庭用户预计将提供8700万千瓦屋顶太阳能和2700万千瓦小型电池储能。若能协调利用，可避免到2050年累计72亿澳元的电网级储能投资。
- 天然气作为关键备用：AEMO呼吁到2050年新增1400万千瓦天然气发电容量，作为可再生能源发电不足时的备用，并提供关键的电网稳定性服务。
- 煤炭角色转变：部分煤电厂可能通过“两班制”快速启停等方式适应变化，仅在用电高峰季节运行，这可能延长其服役寿命。
- 市场现实：分析师指出，2024年已开工的新建项目全部是太阳能和电池储能，表明市场实际变化快于规划速度。风电部署速度严重落后于年度目标需求。
Original Article Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-10/aemo-isp-slashes-wind-forecasts-as-solar-batteries-rise/106120076