Where the blockbuster weight loss drug market stands today — and what’s coming next

English News Brief

Summary

The market for blockbuster weight loss drugs is entering a new growth phase, dominated by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with a potential value of $100 billion by 2030. Key challenges include insurance coverage, drug pricing, competition from copycat treatments, and the development of oral alternatives.

Key Points

  • Market Leaders: Eli Lilly leads in market share (57% in Q2) for injectable GLP-1 drugs, surpassing Novo Nordisk due to superior efficacy and tolerability of drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound.
  • Supply & Access: Both companies are increasing manufacturing capacity to address past shortages, but insurance coverage remains limited, with many plans excluding obesity treatments.
  • Copycat Drugs: Compounded versions of semaglutide (Novo Nordisk’s ingredient) persist, posing a competitive threat, especially to Novo Nordisk, despite legal efforts to curb them.
  • Oral Drugs: Pills for weight loss (e.g., Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide and Lilly’s orforglipron) are nearing approval, potentially expanding access but facing questions on efficacy, side effects, and pricing.
  • Future Competition: Other drugmakers (e.g., Amgen, Viking Therapeutics) are developing innovative treatments, but most are years from market, with differentiation and partnerships critical for success.

中文新闻简报

摘要

减肥药市场正进入新的增长阶段,由礼来和诺和诺德主导,预计到2030年市场规模可达约1000亿美元。关键挑战包括保险覆盖、药品定价、仿制药竞争以及口服药物的研发。

关键点

  • 市场领导者: 礼来在注射型GLP-1药物市场份额领先(第二季度达57%),超越诺和诺德,因其药物(如Mounjaro和Zepbound)在疗效和耐受性上更优。
  • 供应与可及性: 两家公司都在增加产能以缓解短缺,但保险覆盖仍有限,许多计划不涵盖肥胖治疗。
  • 仿制药问题: 诺和诺德的司美格鲁肽仿制药持续存在,对其构成竞争威胁,尽管已采取法律行动遏制。
  • 口服药物: 减肥口服药(如诺和诺德的口服司美格鲁肽和礼来的orforglipron)即将获批,可能扩大可及性,但面临疗效、副作用和定价问题。
  • 未来竞争: 其他制药公司(如安进、Viking Therapeutics)正在开发创新疗法,但大多距上市尚有数年,差异化和合作是关键。

Original Article Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/02/whats-next-for-the-weight-loss-drug-market-pills-rivals-insurance.html

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